The 2012 Timor-Leste election process itself has been described by
international observers as free, fair and democratic. Unlike previous
elections, the 2012 election has been surprisingly peaceful with minor
incidents, but the number of voter turn-out was only 78% and dropped 6% compared
to previous 2007 election figures. The main contributing factor to this is
logistical reasons where the electoral law requires voters to go back and vote
at their individual place of registration.
Taur Matan Ruak (TMR)
TMR and his campaign team are very optimistic to defeat the Fretilin
candidate this time and their optimism is based on very good reasons - mainly
because as an independent candidate, TMR not only has support from CNRT and other
parties, but also they are harvesting most of the non-Fretilin voters from
other candidates such as Ramos-Horta and Fernando Lasama of the Democratic
Party (PD); both have 35% voters if combined and spreading across the Western
and Middle regions of the country. Secondly, TMR has the advantage as an
independent candidate that allows him to earn the trust from ordinary Timorese.
TMR who likes cooking and reading in his free time is known to be well mannered,
humble yet brave. His braveness often is misinterpreted by his opponents as
aggression. His willingness to work and listen to others earned him a lot of
admiration from those who work with him in his campaign team. One of his main
campaign team member’s, Fidelis Magalahães, a young London School of Economics
(LSE) graduate described TMR as, “… not a typical Timorese leader. In our
meetings, sometimes he just listens and let us [the campaign team] talk and
discuss the matter. He will ask questions and clarification if he is not sure about
something. He likes his ideas to be challenged and appreciates those who
produce new ideas. He will be a great president for Timor-Leste. It is great to
work with him.”
Lu-Olo
Many Timorese like Lu-Ólo as an individual. He is a bright man and
has experience to have served as speaker of parliament for 5 years. He also
recently graduated with a law degree from Timor-Leste National University. Many
view him as someone who is like ‘gold’ inside a lion’s mouth. The support he received
from Fretilin seems like a good thing, but if one looks closer, it is a
drawback at the same time. It is because Fretilin voters can only take him to the
second round as the most voted candidate, but then that’s it. He cannot go
further because the number of Fretilin voters goes as far as 30%, give or take
10%. For Lu-Ólo, the 2007 election scenario is likely to be repeated where he
was the most voted candidate in the first round and lost against Ramos Horta,
the current President in the second round. Lu-Ólo’s chances to be the next
president can be easily predicted by looking at the 2007 election and the first
round of 2012 presidential election result. It is predicted that, Lu-Ólo will
get 40% votes if everything run smoothly or 45% at most. Furthermore, the
non-Fretilin afraid of people around Lu-Ólo and they worry that if he is
elected as president, the remote control will be held by someone else. They
also worry that Lu-Ólo cannot separate between party interests and national interest
when he serves as president. This was very apparent when he was speaker of
parliament.
Ramos Horta and Lasama’s votes will
determine who will be the next President
Ramos Horta and Lasama will be the one’s who decide who will be the
next president, and they know this very well. It is still a mystery whom they
will support out of TMR and Lu-Ólo. This can swing either way. However, logically,
they will support the candidate whom they think they can easily work with and
have the same general views on how the country should move forward. In this case,
personalities of different figures within Fretilin and CNRT become very
important. Their decisions will be based on whether they think it is easier to
work with TMR and Xanana Gusmão or Lu-Ólo and Mari Alkatiri. For Lasama, it is
difficult to choose to work with the latter (Lu-Ólo and Alkatiri) because young
PD rank and file members have been offended too often in the past when Mr.
Alkatiri publicly labeled them as “sarjana supermi” - 5 minute noodle degrees
from Indonesia. Ramos Horta can work with either one of them however with tendencies
more towards TMR and Xanana because they have similar views on how the country
should move forward. All being said for the nation’s interest, one would expect
that whomever Ramos-Horta or Lasama give their votes to must also serve their
own agenda’s.
What this election means to the
Timorese?
For ordinary Timorese, the most important thing is not who will be
the next president, but it is more about if the election process is carried out
peacefully or not. If this election is peaceful (both presidential and parliamentary
[in June this year]), it will be a milestone in Timorese history. A lot of
efforts have been made by many Timorese to promote a peaceful election, free of
violence. It is amazing and impressive to see the Timorese eagerness to show to
the international community and change the view of “Timor-Leste as a post-conflict
violent country.” If the election process run peacefully, it will become the
foundation of national unity where national development and a bright future can
take root. Ho Maromak nia tulun!
